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Focused on tennis picks from a risk evaluation and odds arbitrage perspective

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F Lopez - J.Del Potro
Friday, March 28th, 2008 12:30
Tennis - ATP
Pick:  J.Del Potro ML   Result: Pending
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  1.90
Bookmaker:  Bet365   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 28, 2008, 10:11




Tennis Picks

Juan Martin del Potro is back and he is healthy..for now. His ranking has faltered because of his time off due to injury. He is hungry to bring his ranking back to where it was before the layoff and even further. He knocked off the rust against a decent Jesse Levine, who is no pushover, in straights.

Feliciano Lopez is his opponent, and to del Potro's delight, he returns Lopez's serve very well for some reason. Lopez has not won a set against him, and if he continues to stay healthy*, del Potro should pull out the win. Bookies and the public are still hot off Lopez's performance in Dubai, which is a superfast surface, tailor-made for him. Different surface, different result here.






R Nadal - N Djokovic    +5.36
Saturday, March 22nd, 2008 13:00
Tennis - ATP
Discuss in forum (1 entries)
Pick:  N Djokovic ML   Result: 6-3 6-2
Stake:  8/10   Odds:  1.67
Bookmaker:  Sportingbet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 21, 2008, 11:26




This is a revenge match from last year at this same time. Djokovic has improved greatly in confidence from last year, since his Grand Slam win in Australia. The head to head record is a testament to Nadal's competitiveness which can never be ignored.
However, Nadal has had very close matches with both Tsonga and Blake, both of whom could have won. Djokovic is becoming the best player on hard and Nole does not envision losing here as a part of his plan to become number 1. Here he has a perfect opportunity to gain points from Nadal by denying him the finals and prevent him from defending his title, and a chance at Federer if Federer advances to the finals as well. Options exist for odds at an outright win (around 1.60), as well as winning 2-0 (3.50) and 2-1 (2.25).






L Hewitt - M Fish    -7
Wednesday, March 19th, 2008 23:00
Tennis - ATP
Pick:  L Hewitt ML   Result: 5-7 6-3 6-7
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  1.58
Bookmaker:  Betfair   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 19, 2008, 14:50











Zvonareva - C Dellacqua    -2
Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 23:00
Tennis - WTA
Discuss in forum (1 entries)
Pick:  C Dellacqua ML   Result: 7-6 0-6 4-6
Stake:  2/10   Odds:  3.25
Bookmaker:  Sportingbet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 18, 2008, 14:52




Baselinepicker - Focused on Tennis Picks

Zvonareva's lack of titles concerns me here. As good a player as she is, she does not have many titles and her mental deficiencies have been noted. She can beat anyone, but often loses to those who she should not.
While Dellacqua is not as accomplished, she is mentally tougher and is on a roll.







A Ivanovic - F Schiavone    -1
Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 20:15
Tennis - WTA
Pick:  F Schiavone ML   Result: 6-2 5-7 2-6
Stake:  1/10   Odds:  5.00
Bookmaker:  Bet365   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 18, 2008, 14:33











Murray - I Karlovic    +1.95
Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 20:00
Tennis - ATP
Discuss in forum (1 entries)
Pick:  Murray ML   Result: 7-6 6-7 6-3
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  1.39
Bookmaker:  Betfair   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 18, 2008, 14:16




Baselinepicker - Focused on Tennis Picks

While all would prefer to wager on the possibility of a tiebreak during this match, a win for Murray is not bad either. Murray wants to be involved in the conversation with Nadal, Federer and Djokovic, who, despite Murray's titles this year, are still getting all the talk. He constantly wants to evaluate himself against the top players and Karlovic is in his way. The scare Murray faced against Melzer should only solidify his resolve to get a handle on this match as early as possible.
Being able to handle Karlovic on indoor hard in the past is also an indicator that he can handle Karlovic on a slower surface. You might also consider a cover for Karlovic as the match looks to be a tight one.







Davydenko - M Fish    -5
Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 16:45
Tennis - ATP
Pick:  Davydenko ML   Result: 3-6 2-6
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  1.40
Bookmaker:  Interwetten   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 18, 2008, 13:28











J Jankovic - Medina Garrigues    -1
Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 15:30
Tennis - WTA
Discuss in forum (1 entries)
Pick:  Medina Garrigues ML   Result: 3-6 3-6
Stake:  1/10   Odds:  6.32
Bookmaker:  Betfair   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 18, 2008, 13:01




Would not be surprised with a cover here for Garrigues and maybe even a win. She has had a solid week and could give Jankovic some problems returning every ball.






J.Ferrero - Ancic    +4.35
Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 15:00
Tennis - ATP
Discuss in forum (2 entries)
Pick:  J.Ferrero ML   Result: 7-5 4-6 7-6
Stake:  3/10   Odds:  2.45
Bookmaker:  Sportingbet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 18, 2008, 12:52




With all his talent, why does Ancic find titles so hard to come by? The answer lies in his winning percentage on 2nd serves. He almost always leaves room to be attacked here in all of his matches, and you would be hard pressed to find a decent opponent that doesn't outdo him in this category. I will go against the consensus that he should beat Ferrero here based on the long ago history between the two, with Ferrero not having dropped a set to Ancic in 3 matches.
While it should not be easy, Ferrero deserves a wager here.






R Ginepri - K. Anderson    +6.75
Saturday, March 08th, 2008 14:00
Tennis - ATP
Pick:  K. Anderson ML   Result: 7-6 6-4
Stake:  3/10   Odds:  3.25
Bookmaker:  Sportingbet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 08, 2008, 11:13











F Lopez - J Tipsarevic    -5
Tuesday, March 04th, 2008 06:00
Tennis - ATP
Pick:  J Tipsarevic ML   Result: 3-6 6-4 4-6
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  1.75
Bookmaker:  Interwetten   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 04, 2008, 03:29




These players are heading fast in opposite directions, with Lopez's match play decreasing for 3 back to back matches. The only thing Tipsy has to prove is his consistency over longer periods of time. I'm hoping he begins to do that here.






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Betting:  Part-time
 
Statistics
 
Picks: 54 
Won: 32 
Win rate: 59% 
Stake avg.: 3.6 
Odd avg.: 2.42 
Staked: 198.00 
Returned: 224.49 
Net balance: +26.49 
ROI*: 113% 
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vCash (0/0): + $0.00 

*ROI = Return Of Investment


 
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